Anti-Fragile GTM

Glossary

Predictive Scoring

Using historical conversion data to forecast which accounts or leads will close.

Predictive Scoring · defined

Anti-Fragile take

Predictive scoring applies statistical models to historical deals to rank current pipeline. It works when you have enough closed-won data and clean feature extraction.

We build predictive models in the warehouse with Laplace smoothing for small samples, retrained on every new close.

Why it matters

Gut-feel prioritization does not scale. Predictive scoring gives reps a ranked list backed by evidence.

How we build it

Feature extraction from CRM + warehouse, model training with smoothing, weekly retrain, and scores written to CRM.