Apply Laplace smoothing to small-sample scoring models

Steps

1. Calculate prior. Overall conversion rate across all accounts.
2. Apply smoothing. Add pseudo-counts to numerator and denominator per feature.
3. Validate. Compare smoothed vs. raw scores on holdout set.
4. Deploy. Write smoothed scores to CRM.
5. Monitor. Retrain with less smoothing as sample grows past 50, 100, 200 deals.

Success criteria

Scores are usable (not all 0 or 100). Top decile outperforms bottom decile.